Posts by Splinter

Alberto on devaluation:

Quote

Descartó una devaluación

“Hasta ahora no sirvió bajar las retenciones", reconoció el Presidente en otro tramo de la entrevista, y advirtió que "si alguien está especulando con la devaluación, especula de gusto porque una devaluación no va a haber”.

En igual sentido que si bien el Gobierno busca terminar con la cotización paralela, ahora está centrado en la evolución del dólar oficial. “No queremos tener mas de una cotización de la divisa. Pero ahora tenemos que ver cómo evoluciona el valor del dólar oficial y estamos siendo muy cuidadosos para evitar retrasos cambiarios”, afirmó.

El mandatario nacional indicó también que no les gustó tener que adoptar las medidas de restricciones de acceso al mercado cambiario, pero remarcó que tuvieron que hacerlo porque Mauricio Macri en su gestión “dejó un Banco Central languidecido” de dólares.

// Mauricio Macri: “Cristina Kirchner tiene secuestrado al peronismo hace diez años”

“Está claro que a ninguno de nosotros nos gusta las medidas de restricciones cambiarias, pero tiene que ver con la carencia de dólares que nos dejó Mauricio Macri, que debe tener amnesia severa, porque entre el día después de las PASO y las elecciones generales se fueron U$S23.000 millones", remarcó.

Tras señalar que la Argentina está atravesando “un proceso de reordenamiento del mercado cambiario”, el jefe de Estado consideró “un momento único, generado entre el desastre que se heredó y la pandemia”, pero dijo que está" seguro que el año que viene será mejor". “Vamos a crecer bien. Vamos a crecer mucho. Y el crecimiento alcanzará a todos”, concluyó.

English

Ruled out a devaluation

"Until now, it has not served to lower withholdings (retentions)," the President acknowledged in another part of the interview, and warned that "if someone is speculating on the devaluation, he speculates with pleasure because there will be no devaluation."

In the same sense that although the Government seeks to end the parallel price, it is now focused on the evolution of the official dollar. “We do not want to have more than one price of the currency. But now we have to see how the value of the official dollar evolves and we are being very careful to avoid exchange delays, "he said.

The national leader also indicated that they did not like having to adopt the measures to restrict access to the exchange market, but stressed that they had to do so because Mauricio Macri in his administration "left a languishing Central Bank" of dollars.

// Mauricio Macri: "Cristina Kirchner has kidnapped Peronism for ten years"

“It is clear that none of us like the exchange restriction measures, but it has to do with the lack of dollars that Mauricio Macri left us, who must have severe amnesia, because between the day after PASO and the general elections they were US $ 23,000 million, "he remarked.

After noting that Argentina is going through "a process of reorganization of the exchange market", the head of state considered "a unique moment, generated between the inherited disaster and the pandemic", but said that he is "sure that next year it will be better". “We are going to grow well. We are going to grow a lot. And growth will reach everyone ”, he concluded.

Display More

It's important to remember that Peronist governments live in an alternative universe where the following simply do not exist:

Inflation

Crime

Devaluation

Blue/black markets...add as many as you wish.

The anti-government protests on Sunday, labelled #12O, were largely peaceful and pretty much came about as a result of the authoritarian measures being proposed or are becoming law. The appointment/removal of judges, the perpetual lockdown and economic disaster being the central themes.

The president has criticised the Sunday marches as 'fomenting hatred', which couldn't be further from the truth, since this actual government is the body doing exactly that.

He also criticises the marches for being careless in light of the virus, but of course, pro-government marches are supported to the hilt, virus or no virus.

As @Mckenna has said, I don't expect this to end well, whenever that may be.

Quote from Rice

Splinter , could you please cut & paste the article? Not a subscriber, I can’t get past the headline. Thanks!

Reproduced here:

https://technocodex.com/argent…rds-currency-devaluation/

Quote

Argentina is heading towards its seventh currency devaluation in 20 years, analysts say, as pressure builds on the peso and investors lose faith in the government’s ability to stabilise the economy.

The country struck a deal to restructure $65bn of foreign debt in August, shunting debt repayments far into the future. But financial markets remain fragile. Bond prices have dropped back down to distressed levels, equity prices have collapsed and the gap between the official and black market exchange rates is widening.

Analysts and investors think that with just $1bn in liquid reserves to hand, Argentina’s central bank will be forced to tighten restrictions on imports and reset the peso at a new, much weaker value.

“They are on a collision course [towards a devaluation]. The question is how long it takes,” said Alejo Costa, a strategist at BTG Pactual, a Brazilian investment bank. “If they keep postponing a devaluation, the inflationary impact will only get larger — and more [politically] destabilising . . . but this kind of administration only devalues its currency when it is forced to.”

Local savers and businesses have little faith in the peso’s value. Under the official exchange rate set by the central bank, one dollar buys 77 pesos. But on the black market, it buys more than double that — a record gap.

A devaluation poses a problem because it would push up inflation at a time when prices are already rising very fast.

Already, the official peso rate has dropped 22 per cent against the dollar so far this year, in a slide that accelerated in early October after tighter capital controls were introduced.

The government has sought to control the currency’s pace of decline, with measures including tighter capital controls and lower taxes for the agricultural powerhouse’s soya exporters. But those measures are unlikely to have much impact, say analysts. Reserves fell by $1.2bn in the second half of September after they were announced.

“Unfortunately, the measures have not created any incentive to increase the supply of dollars, so the central bank is clearly scraping the bottom of the barrel in search of more dollars,” said Martin Redrado, a former central bank governor. A $3.1bn loan from the Bank for International Settlements could help to buy some time, he said.

Given the crisis of confidence facing the government, authorities had only two options, said Miguel Kiguel, a former finance secretary. One is simply to devalue the peso, like the last devaluation under a Peronist government in 2014 when the currency lost about a quarter of its value — although that might not be enough this time around.

They can hold on for a very long time through tighter and tighter capital controls. But that’s moving policy in the wrong direction

The second option is to introduce a formalised dual exchange rate system, with many operations moved to a new weaker exchange rate, but a much narrower gap between the two rates than exists today.

“The government is trapped in a very difficult situation where any alternative has costs . . . [but] it’s going to be very hard to maintain the status quo,” he said. “But more than that, they need an integral economic plan, otherwise [any success] will last the blink of an eye.”

The IMF, which has lent Argentina $44bn since the country’s last currency crisis in 2018, may help towards the implementation of an economic plan to restore calm to markets. The multilateral lender, which sent officials to Buenos Aires on a fact-finding mission last week, is unlikely to demand tough austerity measures in return for assistance at a time when poverty has risen to more than 40 per cent due to the pandemic.

Argentina’s coronavirus lockdown has been one of the longest and strictest in the world, exacerbating the economic blow. It has just been extended once again to October 25.

One former official believes the government will be forced to act by the end of November because this year’s steady depreciation in the peso of about 2 to 3 per cent a month would no longer be sustainable. “Although the government might be able to hold on for longer than many think, once the situation accelerates, it goes fast. It looks like there are practically no breaks on this dynamic already.”

Proceeds from the farming nation’s soya exports are due to start arriving by March, prompting many analysts to believe the government could “muddle through” perhaps until the middle of next year.

But with midterm elections due in October next year, that strategy would be risky for the government. Deeper economic strain could compromise the re-election chances of the Peronist government in 2023.

“They can hold on for a very long time through tighter and tighter capital controls,” said Graham Stock, head of emerging market sovereign research at BlueBay Asset Management. “But that’s moving policy in the wrong direction . . . Politically, that’s very dangerous, as it would be a symbol of very low confidence in economic management.”

“They are caught between a rock and a hard place,” Mr Stock said, pointing to the impact of the pandemic that has aggravated a recession now in its third year. “There are no easy answers.”

Display More

One of my favourite game trailers ever.

Shame it never got made.

This is where we are:

♫ ♪"You can check out anytime you like, but you can never leave."♫ ♫

https://www.ft.com/content/740…36-4759-a97c-5f107e714398

Rednecks at play.

Comisaría del pensamiento aka thought police

I couldn't have put it better myself serafina

And let's not forget the crude Moreno campaign against Clarin - Clarin lies! not so long ago which is so very similar to Trump's CNN lies!

Churchill was right.

And he also said:

"The best argument against democracy is a five minute conversation with the average voter."

Could this new initiative by the regime be one step closer to controlling the free press?

NODIO (no odio or no hate, I suppose) is described as:

Quote

"El gobierno lanzó una iniciativa a la que llamó NODIO. Consiste en monitorear lo que se publica en medios y redes para definir qué publicaciones son ciertas y cuáles no, de acuerdo a su particular forma de verlo",

"The government launched an initiative that it called NODIO. It consists of monitoring what is published in the media and networks to define which publications are true and which are not, according to their particular way of viewing it",

And if they don't like what is published? Are they going to check every written word?

The cepo (clamp) is very topical today. You can't buy dollars, you're punished if you make any transaction in that currency, we're still under a quasi-quarantine and now they want to strangle freedom of speech.

We really should worry about this, especially when they dress it up as diversity.

Spot the difference.

All we have is Patricia Bullrich who has about as much charisma as a dead sheep.

I'm watching this right now. It's great stuff.

That fly has now achieved superstardom, albeit ignominiously!

But back to space, yes it really does do your head in when you wonder if there's a wall somewhere at the edge of the cosmos. But then, what's behind that wall? Is there a door? And who would have the key?

What would the door look like, not to mention the key itself?

Would God, or whichever deity you believe in, be behind the wall?

The weather in Chile could be good for sunbathing.

https://ampervadasz.tumblr.com/post/190012791167/revolution

We are less than grains of sand, much less.

A handy place for a toolbox.