Is Argentina inevitably headed toward its 9th default?

  • I’m catching up on the news after a week of complete escapism. CNBC has an interesting Argentina economic history lesson in a short video and concise appraisal of the likely outcome of the talks that end today.


    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/1…e-imf-talks-near-end.html


    When asked to what extent bondholders, creditors and international investors should be worried about the prospect of Argentina registering another default, [regional director for Latin America at the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)] Fiona Mackie replied: “It is about as high risk as it can get without it being our forecast.”

  • I somehow doubt that CNBC would be clickbait. Of course we all hope Argentina won’t default, does anyone see any kind of plan in the offing? I didn’t like that prediction of 77% likelihood.

  • problem is that Argentina is the worst of the worst of the worst, track record say: lying , deceiving, unpredictable, shameless.......

    The bond holders or say the big investment funds and IMF know all this......they are not dumb, and specially since Argentina is a serial offender...... multiple serial offender!

    So with that in mind, they will not trust ANYTHING, or give in for any BLABLABLA......

    If they can get 50% f.ex. by being arschhole they might prefer that instead of "maybe this maybe that" with a better looking number......

    Seriously cannot imagine any of the large funds accepting anything........because they know it's just bullsheeeeet, like always!


    And seen from the peronchos side: to give in for any pressure from IMF or bondholders, would mean loosing all of the support from their core voters......since they would need to make DRASTIC CHANGES.......very drastic!

    Btw., Just to understand the stupidity we are in.....in rioja they needed 3000 seasonal workers, but for several months, high income, those months.....3 showed up for the work...since the workers would need to leave their planes! Cfk managed to enter around 4 million people in pension plans, people that had never paid in any money into the pension system!

    If there is any country that deserve to go bankrupt, I think Argentina would be one of the top candidates.......

  • The only blame that can be attached to the IMF is that they were foolish enough to lend to a government that had no economic plan.


    The current government is equally as bad - they're trying to negotiate with absolutely no plan behind their promises.

  • I am still astounded that the IMF ever even considered again trusting this country with a loan. What were they thinking?

    We can certainly exclude they did it because gullible or kind of heart. I believe there are commercial and economic interests that were traded behind the scenes, on levels very far from the public eye and our knowledge.

  • Btw., Just to understand the stupidity we are in.....in rioja they needed 3000 seasonal workers, but for several months, high income, those months.....3 showed up for the work...since the workers would need to leave their planes! Cfk managed to enter around 4 million people in pension plans, people that had never paid in any money into the pension system!

    In Italy it just happened the same thing. They have instituted a sort of plan for all unemployed Italians last year. They called it 'income by citizenship' because it is only for Italian citizens who have been continuously residing in Italy for 10 years. Especially in the South of Italy, the plan provides a steady income for many, whereas local (underpaid) jobs do not.

    As a result, many people are looking for jobs in black in order to not lose the financial aid. Or they try to work in white but quit after a few days quit because it is not worth the extra effort for the extra money they'd get.


    Funnily, they said they were copying Scandinavian socialism, but are creating South American socialism, instead.

    I have come to the conclusion that it is really the people's fault. There must be something embedded in society, on its criteria of what's fair and what's not.


    In Germany, the government gives financial incentives to families with kids. But that money can be spent only on specific item *for the kids*. Here they give the money -- the kids still sit on the floor sipping mate, while the parents buy flat TVs in installments. As soon as they are old enough, they aren't educated to find a proper job, want to live in front of the TV like their parents, and to achieve so they have children of their own. They've created a poor-machine.

  • Any administration that tries to implement welfare reform will be a one-term administration. So unless an unselfish patriot should arise, achieve the miracle of being elected, achieve the larger miracle of persuading the legislators to stand with him, then actually enact sweeping changes before being swept out of office, nothing will change.

  • to understand the complexity of the Argentinian debt, it's helpful to look at the latest default coming from the 2001/2 crisis........

    Argentina said they needed to restructure the debt since they were unable to continue paying......same as today.....

    They managed to get 93% approval from the bondholders, which accepted 30 cents per dollar, meaning taking a 70% loss on their bonds......

    The problem: the rest bondholders, 7% demanded full repayment of all 100% invested!!!

    The even bigger problem: Argentina was not allowed to treat bondholders different, all are the same......! So, they got deadlocked in the deal with the 97% bondholders, which they could not serve to start with.....

    After many years of battle back and forward, the holdout bondholders with the 7% of the bonds got paid 75 cent on the dollar, so taking only a loss of 25%!


    So here we are.......

    Think about how everything will be this time!!!!!

    My old boss always made fun with this saying: "this time is different".......... always turns out to be exactly the same!!!!

    So the joy and happiness from the 🤡 and his goons should be taken with a grain of salt......this is gonna be a loooong battle.....

  • exactly that's how it is ........and then afterwards rant over all the evil people that want their money back.....I just find it so terrible to listen too......

    The point is: FMI has 44% of the debt that Argentina ow.....rest is in hand of other investors, funds, privates etc......and my guess is they don't like to be fooled around with and cheated!!!!!

    U cannot force them to say "hey great, Argentina just robbed my money again"....