Corona virus

There are 1,240 replies in this Thread which has previously been viewed 195,888 times. The latest Post () was by Rice.

    UK Man .......I dare u.....take my bet: I bet that the USA number of infected people will be 5 digits in less than a month from now!!!!! After u loose that bet we can bet when it hits 6 digits!!!!!

    A bottle whiskey!!!!


    Just a side note: our great Merkel in Germany bet that 60-70% will get infected in Germany! That would cause 1.2 million to die from it in Germany alone!!!!!

    No idea how right or wrong she is.....her prediction of immigrants, economy etc. have been an absolute miss, so I still have fate in that it won't b that bad.......

    Quote from JAN

    UK Man .......I dare u.....take my bet: I bet that the USA number of infected people will be 5 digits in less than a month from now!!!!!

    Would be surprised if it went above the normal flu figures.


    ''While the impact of flu varies, it places a substantial burden on the health of people in the United States each year. CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.''

    Rice we will beat up UK Man together......then we'll raid his house for all the KitKat bunkering, whiskey etc, and take poor nazarena with us for a more stable and respectful life.....

    Quote from Rice

    While reading this CDC info on influenza, UK Man , it would be a really good idea to read on and see what they have to say about COVID-19.

    If it turns out to be far worse than normal flu I shall be the first to hold up my hands and admit I was wrong Rice. Until then I remain sceptical.


    Anyway...how come annual flu figures don't initiate the same world wide response as this virus? That's what's confusing me.

    Quote from UK Man

    If it turns out to be far worse than normal flu I shall be the first to hold up my hands and admit I was wrong Rice. Until then I remain sceptical.


    Anyway...how come annual flu figures don't initiate the same world wide response as this virus? That's what's confusing me.

    Because it's not as deadly and unknown area!!!!

    NO ONE has any idea how far this can or will go or how to stop it......

    A few things that are clear.


    UK Man has a point. Flu kills many hundreds of thousands each year, and like coronavirus it is most dangerous for elderly and those with underlying conditions. So, the parameters of the illness itself are very similar and sure, we do little to really stop these deaths each year and certainly don't go into meltdown over them.


    While YouTube and the news are filled with people predicting the end of the world, the reality is more likely that COVID-19 becomes another seasonal event like the flu. This is troubling because COVID-19 does have a much higher mortality rate than flu. Regulalr seasonal flu has a very low mortality rate of 0.1% which means 100,000 people getting it would result in 100 deaths. Coronavirus is hovering around 3.5%, so every 100,000 infections will result in 3500 deaths.


    What we don't know yet is whether coronavirus will become a prevelent as seasonal flu. The signs suggest it will be as it is spreading and quickly under all conditions. If it just disappeared tomorrow then there would be a collective sigh of relief and perhaps some reflection that the world over-reacted. Problem is, this is not going away anytime soon and is increasingly looking like it will become another seasonal event.


    If it continues to grow it could very well have the same number of infections every year as flu. Of course, many people with flu never go to the doctor, so let's look at the ones that were hospitalized in 2019. In the United States, the CDC said the 2019/2020 flu season resulted in 250,000 hospitalizations and 14,000 deaths. It was a bad season.


    As we know, flu kills 0.1% of its victims, which means in the U.S. 14,000 deaths means 14 million people were infected (remember, just the United States). If coronavirus is just another flu-like event that we must live with and we assume it has a similar infection capability (all signs suggest it does), then those 14 million infections would result in 490,000 deaths in the U.S.


    Again, the 2019/2020 flue season was high, so let's round it down to an average yearly death rate in the U.S. of 10,000 people and 10 million invections. Even then, COVID-19 has the potential to kill 390,000 people each year in one country. So, this new seasonal norm could result in millions of global deaths each year. The world is in meltdown because people are working out that suddenly we have an infectious virus that could kill millions each year.


    And yeah, I know I am extrapolating but all the above is not the worst case scenario, but merely the most likely. COVID-19 becomes a yearly event like the flu. Best case would be it disappearing, worst case would be it mutating or developing some kind of resilience against certain conditions and taking us all down. Those two extremes are unlikely.


    The governments have handled it dreadfully and there are now many lessons we can learn about the future, especially if something truly horrific ever befalls us. I mean a genuinly nasty virus that there's no hiding from. There must now be planned infrastructure that deals with these kinds of outbreaks, especially centered around how to handle the most vulnerable and how to ensure supplies don't collapse.