Overpopulation: A problem or not?

There are 8 replies in this Thread. The last Post () by Carlos.

  • Overpopulation is a major cause of most of the world’s problems. Whether it is a question of food shortage, lack of drinking water or energy shortages, every country in the world is affected by it – or will be. Partly thanks to the import of goods from abroad, any particular country is able to maintain its own welfare. But this cannot go on in an unlimited way. The world population is threatening to rise from the current 7 billion to 11 billion according to the UN. There is a good chance that more and more countries will need their own products themselves. All continents except Africa have a total fertility rate around 2 children per woman, but Africa has an alarming total fertility rate around 4, which will result in an African population around 4.4 billion in 2100 from the current 1.3 billion if nothing is done. The African population boom is unsustainable and more action is needed to slow down the rapid population growth of Africa. If the problem won't be taken seriously enough by governments and other powerfull organisations, the result will be huge global environmental problems, terrorism, wars and massive global poverty everywhere. It will also harm the richest countries.

    Our planet can offer a quality of life comparable to that enjoyed in the European Union to no more than 3 billion people. With a population of 11 billion, welfare per person on a world scale will drop to that of a poor farmer who can scarcely provide sufficient food for himself and knows nothing of welfare. The climate is changing – and it matters little whether this can be blamed on human activity or on changes in the solar system. The sea level only has to rise slightly in order to cause a great deal of valuable agricultural land to disappear. Human beings have a tendency to want more and more welfare. World-wide the numbers of cars, planes and refrigerators are increasing before our very eyes. But there will come a time when population growth and welfare collide. There is a reasonably good chance that floods of people will trek all over the world searching for more food and welfare.

    Technicians are only too happy to point to technology that has solutions to all our problems up its sleeve. Unfortunately technical solutions have not as yet been able to combat world hunger in any significant way. Wherever there is no recognition or solving of the problems on a worldwide scale, war and violence would seem to be inevitable: Everyone wants to survive.

    The business world and the religions are generally only interested in population growth. Allowing welfare to shrink is often just as difficult for the rich as fleeing from poverty is for the poor. The only solution for the continuing population growth is more investments in the poorest regions of the world. Some African nations have decent total fertility rates, but in a large amount of African nations, women still have around 6 children on average, which is unsustainable. Some countries also have too low birth rates, like Singapore with a TFR around 1. A very fast population decline will also result in problems, a balanced total fertility rate between 1.5 and 2 is needed in every country for the best of the world.

    Education, especially for women, and free contraception helped a lot of poor countries with a rapid increase in living standards. Kenya did a great job for example with taking its population growth problems seriously. In the 1970s, they had a TFR of 8 and it is estimated to be 2.3 in 2020. They became one of the highest developed African countries. In countries with the highest birth rates, women often don't have the freedom to choose their amount of children, with social and religious pressure, lack of contraception and lack of education. The $2.5 billion "Family Planning 2020" project, which was founded by Bill and Melinda Gates, takes the population growth problem seriously and invested in a large amount of money in free contraception for the poorest regions of the world. This way, women will have more freedom in their choice for the amount of children they want, which is a great step forward. The next step for the poorest African countries in economic development can only be taken when their population growth will decline fast. Fortunately, a lot of African governments also started to take the problem seriously, but they often lack funds to have a huge impact. I hope governments and big organisations will invest more in Africa (especially free birth control and education) to decline its unsustainable rapid population growth.

    Please also read these articles about population growth:


    http://theconversation.com/nig…-recipe-for-unrest-108654


    https://sciencing.com/environm…ation-growth-8337820.html


    https://ourworldindata.org/exp…owth-rates_v7_850x600.svg


    https://www.who.int/news-room/…rise---new-un-report-says


    https://www.eurekalert.org/pub…019-05/jhub-pif052019.php


    Fortunately, countries with high total fertility rates have falling rates. The countries with rates below replacement level, which is around 2.1, have stable rates.

    Country - Total fertility rate - Population above 10 million

    Niger 5.9 Yes
    Mali 5.5 Yes
    Somalia 5.5 Yes
    Burundi 5.3 Yes
    South Sudan 4.9 Yes
    Uganda 4.9 Yes
    Angola 4.8 Yes
    Nigeria 4.7 Yes
    Zambia 4.6 Yes
    Burkina Faso 4.5 Yes
    Guinea 4.5 Yes
    Benin 4.4 Yes
    Liberia 4.1 No
    Malawi 4.1 Yes
    Mozambique 4.1 Yes
    Afghanistan 3.9 Yes
    DR Congo 3.9 Yes
    Senegal 3.9 Yes
    Sierra Leone 3.9 No
    Timor-Leste 3.9 No
    Chad 3.8 Yes
    Equatorial Guinea 3.8 No
    Eritrea 3.8 No
    Guinea-Bissau 3.8 No
    São Tomé and Príncipe 3.8 No
    Madagascar 3.7 Yes
    Togo 3.7 No
    Mauritania 3.6 No
    Central African Republic 3.5 No
    Rwanda 3.5 Yes
    Sudan 3.5 Yes
    Cameroon 3.4 Yes
    Zimbabwe 3.4 Yes
    Comoros 3.2 No
    Congo 3.2 No
    Ethiopia 3.2 Yes
    The Gambia 3.2 No
    Yemen 3.2 Yes
    Côte d’Ivoire 3.1 Yes
    Jordan 3.1 No
    Tanzania 3.0 Yes
    Iraq 2.9 Yes
    Marshall Islands 2.9 No
    Solomon Islands 2.9 No
    Tonga 2.9 No
    Tuvalu 2.9 No
    Vanuatu 2.9 No
    Papua New Guinea 2.8 No
    Gabon 2.7 No
    Ghana 2.7 Yes
    Nauru 2.7 No
    Philippines 2.7 Yes
    Egypt 2.6 Yes
    Samoa 2.6 No
    Belize 2.5 No
    Eswatini 2.5 No
    Guatemala 2.5 Yes
    Honduras 2.5 No
    Kyrgyz Republic 2.5 No
    Lao PDR 2.5 No
    Lesotho 2.5 No
    Oman 2.5 No
    Tajikistan 2.5 No
    Bolivia 2.4 No
    Haiti 2.4 Yes
    Israel 2.4 No
    Pakistan 2.4 Yes
    Cambodia 2.3 Yes
    Fiji 2.3 No
    Kenya 2.3 Yes
    Kiribati 2.3 No
    Micronesia 2.3 No
    Syria 2.3 Yes
    Botswana 2.2 No
    Djibouti 2.2 No
    Dominican Republic 2.2 Yes
    Kuwait 2.2 No
    Panama 2.2 No
    Venezuela 2.2 Yes
    Argentina 2.1 Yes
    Bhutan 2.1 No
    Cabo Verde 2.1 No
    Ecuador 2.1 Yes
    India 2.1 Yes
    Kazakhstan 2.1 Yes
    Mexico 2.1 Yes
    Myanmar 2.1 Yes
    South Africa 2.1 Yes
    St. Vincent and the Grenadines 2.1 No
    Turkey 2.1 Yes
    Bangladesh 2.0 Yes
    Brazil 2.0 Yes
    Dominica 2.0 No
    France 2.0 Yes
    Grenada 2.0 No
    Indonesia 2.0 Yes
    Libya 2.0 No
    Malaysia 2.0 Yes
    Mongolia 2.0 No
    Morocco 2.0 Yes
    Nepal 2.0 Yes
    New Zealand 2.0 No
    Palau 2.0 No
    Peru 2.0 Yes
    Saudi Arabia 2.0 Yes
    Sri Lanka 2.0 Yes
    Turkmenistan 2.0 No
    United States 2.0 Yes
    Uruguay 2.0 No
    Antigua and Barbuda 1.9 No
    Colombia 1.9 Yes
    DPR Korea 1.9 Yes
    Guyana 1.9 No
    Iceland 1.9 No
    Ireland 1.9 No
    Jamaica 1.9 No
    Namibia 1.9 No
    Paraguay 1.9 No
    Suriname 1.9 No
    Sweden 1.9 Yes
    The Bahamas 1.9 No
    Tunisia 1.9 Yes
    Azerbaijan 1.8 Yes
    Costa Rica 1.8 No
    Denmark 1.8 No
    El Salvador 1.8 No
    Iran 1.8 Yes
    Nicaragua 1.8 No
    Norway 1.8 No
    Qatar 1.8 No
    Russia 1.8 Yes
    Seychelles 1.8 No
    St. Kitts and Nevis 1.8 No
    United Kingdom 1.8 Yes
    Algeria 1.7 Yes
    Australia 1.7 Yes
    Bahrain 1.7 No
    Belgium 1.7 Yes
    Brunei 1.7 No
    Chile 1.7 Yes
    Cuba 1.7 Yes
    Czech Republic 1.7 Yes
    Finland 1.7 No
    Georgia 1.7 No
    Latvia 1.7 No
    Lebanon 1.7 No
    Maldives 1.7 No
    Netherlands 1.7 Yes
    St. Lucia 1.7 No
    Trinidad and Tobago 1.7 No
    United Arab Emirates 1.7 No
    Uzbekistan 1.7 No
    Vietnam 1.7 Yes
    Armenia 1.6 No
    Barbados 1.6 No
    Bulgaria 1.6 No
    Canada 1.6 Yes
    Estonia 1.6 No
    Germany 1.6 Yes
    Liechtenstein 1.6 No
    Lithuania 1.6 No
    Luxembourg 1.6 No
    Montenegro 1.6 No
    Romania 1.6 Yes
    Slovenia 1.6 No
    Albania 1.5 No
    Austria 1.5 No
    China 1.5 Yes
    Moldova 1.5 No
    Monaco 1.5 No
    North Macedonia 1.5 No
    San Marino 1.5 No
    Serbia 1.5 No
    Spain 1.5 Yes
    Switzerland 1.5 No
    Thailand 1.5 Yes
    Ukraine 1.5 Yes
    Andorra 1.4 No
    Belarus 1.4 No
    Bosnia and Herzegovina 1.4 No
    Croatia 1.4 No
    Cyprus 1.4 No
    Greece 1.4 Yes
    Hungary 1.4 No
    Italy 1.4 Yes
    Japan 1.4 Yes
    Malta 1.4 No
    Mauritius 1.4 No
    Poland 1.4 Yes
    Portugal 1.4 Yes
    Slovak Republic 1.4 No
    Korea 1.2 Yes
    Singapore 1.2 No


    Overpopulation was a big problem in China and India. That's why China forced people to get no more than one child, and that's why India forced sterilization on men because its population size limits were reached. It's a brutal way of population control, which can be prevented if a nation's birth rate is around 2 with affordable contraception and good family planning out of free will. And indeed, underpopulation can also be a problem. Singapore for example has a total fertility rate around 1, which means there will be too much elderly people dependent on the workers. A total fertility rate above 2.5 is also problematic, because it will result in more mass poverty, environmental problems, unemployment, terrorism and so on. If a too large part of the population is a child, there won't be enough funds for decent education systems, which are crucial to develop into a developed nation. Africa's birth rate is keeping the continent poor. If we want to take the next step in development, we need birth rates in Africa which are comparable with the highest developed countries in the world. A TFR between 1.5 and 2.5 is healthy, higher or lower is problematic on the long-term. If we want to get rid of mass poverty, it's crucial to get a total fertility rate around 2. You can see it in the list, the countries with the highest TFR are the poorest and the countries with the lowest TFR are among the richest in the world. Niger is the country with the highest TFR, they're also the poorest country in the world. That's no coincidence.


    Africa's high birth rate is keeping the continent poor:


    https://www.economist.com/midd…eeping-the-continent-poor

  • Cannot agree more on touching the subject by the facts.....Stephen Hawkins also already stated this.

    Nevertheless, it seems like a subject nobody want to address!!!



    You just overpopulated this forum by a factor of one and your days are numbered, pal.

    You are kidding admin, or????

    Dont see this thread to be in anyway offensive.....

  • While the subject is an interesting one worthy of debate, it seems odd to jump into an expat forum focused on Argentina to discuss it. Not so much as a introduction, just jumped straight in. Certainly spam.

  • Ok I agree......it's a copy paste piece....

    Obviously guy didn't just do it for us ^^

    To be honest I just skimmed through it quick....

    Sorry I'm just to blue eyed ^^

  • The general article seems urgent and describes a problem.


    In the case of Argentina, fortunately the ration is 2,1 which assures not to be overpopulated. But the question is that we need a huge internal market to sustain our industries.


    Also, the problem is again a question of customs and cultural heritage. In my personal case, I want for my country to receive immigrants which already have a work ethics and sober customs, as that foreseen by Juan Bautista Alberdi in the XIX Century. He preferred the northern europeans, as it was in the USA, but mostly of the inmigrants came from the Mediterranean countries. Not that bad, they were not familiar with the Industrial Revolution as those of Northern Europe, but they had acceptable customs.

    Now we receive immigrants from the neighboring countries which are attracted by the same argentine politicians, which gave very quickly a DNI and inmediately a Social Plan (no work, of course) just for a vote. With this class of people, exactly the opposite of what we really need, the future is black.

    And of course, we are the idiots of Latin America being too generous with people which do not appreciate nior deserve any good gesture: Health care for free, Education for free, university for free.