Severe Thunderstorm Incoming on Saturday Night!

Splinter · December 15, 2017 at 1:25 PM Official Post

This is how the weather will be looking on Saturday night, according to various reputable weather sites that are predicting a short lived but quite sever thunderstorm for after midnight on Saturday through to Sunday morning.

I also came across a weather warning from Pronostico Extendido who have issued their own severe weather warning and a nice precautionary note to accompany it. This is it in full, compliments of Google Translate:

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Hello everyone! For several messages that are coming, and as always in these situations, I take this opportunity to remember that we take into account:
- The maps do not indicate that the same thing will happen in the whole area, but an average of the expected risk, that is to say that "it can happen" but it will not necessarily happen. It is very possible that nothing happens in our area, but the issue is to be attentive to what to do before the possibility of it happening.
- What we have to do is not stop going out and stay locked up expecting the worst! Let's go out, but be attentive: If we see a storm approaching, and the wind or electrical activity begins, let's not stay out in the open and seek refuge. But let's not stop living, we're not talking about the arrival of a hurricane or something fatal.
- Let's follow the radars, they are the best tool (when they work) that we have to really know how the predicted situation is unfolding. If we see strong or severe colors that approach our area, we charge cell phones and notify relatives or friends who are outdoors to be attentive to heaven.
- Try not to frighten or fear, but simply prepare ourselves: Do not leave our lives aside or be anguished, just keep pots, chairs or loose objects from balconies and gardens, carry phones, do not bathe or wash dishes if there are loud thunder, Let's take out the garbage, let's seek refuge if the sky is threatening.
And let's share these and other guidelines with our close people, is all there is to do: Follow our lives without fear but attentive to heaven.
I recommend you visit our prevention and action section:

On the one hand he says nothing at all might happen, but then later says we shouldn't wash the dishes with thunder around. I will definitely heed that advice!

Splinter · December 15, 2017 at 2:59 PM Official Post

This just in from the weather watcher group that I'm a member of:

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⚠SIGNIFICANT SEVERE TIME EVENT FOR THIS SATURDAY IN THE CENTRAL-EAST OF THE COUNTRY

AREA OF COVERAGE: Córdoba, Santa Fe, Entre Ríos, downtown, North and East of Buenos Aires, Federal Capital, Rio de la Plata, West and South of Uruguay

ESTIMATED EVENTS: Possible tornadoes, destructive gusts of wind of up to 120 kilometers per hour or more, significant hailstorms, electrical activity and torrential rains (fast)

DISCUSSION:
A mass of hot to very hot air continues to dominate the entire region under warning, while an extensive polar trough (low pressure zone) is currently approaching from the South Pacific Ocean ...
As we explained yesterday, tomorrow Saturday will advance a cold front quickly throughout the center of the country, interacting with a mass of air extremely unstable and very hot. Yesterday we discussed the recession of moisture from the Litoral to the center-east of the country, seeing the European model (ECMWF) that showed values of 20/22 ° C dew point in area, while the GFS model maintained the mass of very dry air in general ... Today things have changed, not for the case of the European model, but for the GFS model, which has significantly increased the humidity input accompanying more European (delaying something to the event) ... THIS SITUATION IS VERY IMPORTANT AT THE TIME OF DEFINING THE SEVERE EVENTS THAT CAN OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON ...

A strong flow of North and Northwest winds at low levels, 850 hPa, will remain all afternoon in the area causing just the entry of moisture from the north of the country to the center of it ... On the other side winds up to 50 West sector knots will remain above this low flow (500 hPa) with maximums of up to 70 knots still higher. Instability, with the arrival of moisture, will be very important. Maximum CAPE values of 2000/2500 J / Kg or even maximums of up to 3000 J / Kg will release after midday on this moderate vertical wind shear ... Conditions will then become VERY favorable for a significant outbreak of severe weather, especially after 14/16 hours, from the South and to the North of this region. Discrete supercell storms will "shoot" from the probable "cumulus street" that will be established in the area ... Under this environment several of these SC could evolve to the tornadic phase, so some tornadoes are especially likely isolated in the center and north. from the province of Buenos Aires ...

Later in the afternoon the convection will be organized in a "severe" line of instability, which will move at great speed towards the North. Violent or destructive gusts of wind will accompany this line of organized storms, being able to record gusts of wind of up to 120 kilometers per hour or even higher ... THE EVENT OF WIND BURNS will continue being the MAIN associated with the whole situation. The WRF 00z model has begun to react to the situation and does so in a very strong way, accompanying everything explained ...
Likely hail, in some cases with medium sizes, will accompany the most intense storm cells, while torrential rains in short periods of time and electrical activity will also be with these storms ...
Towards the dawn the line of storms (instability) will move quickly towards the North reaching the South and center of the Litoral, later to a suffocating heat afternoon in that zone where the maximums will surpass the 40 ° C ...

I SAY AGAIN TO SAY THE SAME ... it would be good that before this probable event explained, all the outdoor shows that are thinking for the afternoon and the beginning of the Saturday night in this area take into account this ... and if you can suspend it suspend ... NOBODY WILL GIVE ME BALL AND I ... But I insist with this because they are very particular dates in the year and this type of storms usually become very violent ...

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I've read loads of these weather warnings in the past and the ones that aren't thought to be much to write about have often been more severe, resulting in many cases of Cry Wolf. We'll keep an eye on things though.

Rice · December 15, 2017 at 4:08 PM

Quote from Splinter

On the one hand he says nothing at all might happen, but then later says we shouldn't wash the dishes with thunder around. I will definitely heed that advice!

Anytime there is official advice not to wash dishes, I pay strict attention. One cannot be too careful.

GlasgowJohn · December 16, 2017 at 2:55 PM

Quote from Rice

Anytime there is official advice not to wash dishes, I pay strict attention. One cannot be too careful.

its Sat pm , 14.55 , loads of thunder and I am about to go in the kitchen and do what a man has to do........

Splinter · December 16, 2017 at 8:21 PM Official Post

Could be a bumpy night .
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Splinter · December 16, 2017 at 9:38 PM Official Post

Carlos · December 17, 2017 at 8:38 AM

These abrupts change of weather (from 36 C to 13 C) are very common in BA. In December, the cycle is 3 days average. This observation of our weather dates since the XIX century, and acknowledged by many English and French visitors of that time. I think it is a good feature. Hot weather who stays more than a week is unbearable.

Splinter · December 17, 2017 at 8:59 AM Official Post

As I suspected, the storm was nowhere near the apocalyptic event many were predicting.

Carlos · December 17, 2017 at 9:57 AM

Weather forecasters are eager to send tremenduous prophecies about the weather. Is a way increase their fame and prestige. But if you see the statistics, they will keep you at peace.

The worst High temerature record was in February 1957 with 43°C (not the "sensuous"one) and inmediately it came a storm that restored normal temperatures. I remember that day very well.

Splinter · December 18, 2017 at 12:43 PM Official Post

How the thunderstorms developed:

https://www.facebook.com/estacionmeteorologicavillademayo/videos/1928251517203218

Splinter · August 28, 2025 at 3:18 PM

The Santa Rosa storm often arrives a week or so either side of the end of August, if at all and usually coincides with unusually warm weather for this time if year.

Anyway, it looks like Santa Rosa is arriving bang on time this year with the weather deteriorating on Saturday night, but it won't be as severe as previously thought.

Cambio de pronóstico: ¿se demora la llegada de la tormenta de Santa Rosa a Buenos Aires este fin de semana?

El pronóstico del tiempo para Capital Federal y el GBA clima primaveral en el AMBA, pero llega una ciclogénesis con tormenta de Santa Rosa.

www.meteored.com.ar

Severe Thunderstorm Incoming on Saturday Night!

Beer to be spent?

jamesbell8770