Is inflation going down in Argentina?

There are 15 replies in this Thread. The last Post () by Rice.

  • According to La Nacion, November's inflation was around 1.3% which brings the year to date to around 20.3%.

    But this all depends on who you ask, which experts that is. Most feel that the accumulated total for the year is around 25%. Not nearly as bad as it has been, but still fucking ridiculous.

    It's also worth mentioning that the government was forecasting 17% this time two years ago. Politicians eh?;(

  • Hey, A reality of 20.3% vs 24 months' ago forecast of 17% ? Who wouldn't take that, compared to the alternative that prevailed for 12 years? A great relief to have numbers based on something besides fantasy.

  • I do not know about the bonds but the idea of making money investments in Argentina sounds very risky. At least with real estate you have a roof over your head, but money?


    Aren't Argentinian bonds famous in the US? In Italy, 500,000 small investors (= grandpas) lost a lot of money because of them about 20 years ago (in 2001). As the old says goes 'If it sounds to good to be true, it probably is'.


    I believe also my grandparents lost money on them - they never talked about it, they were too ashamed. Italian banks were proposing them as a good and safe investment, and when they collapsed, lifetime savings were swept aways. If you say 'Argentina' to an Italian, he/she will talk about Argentinian bonds (also called tango bonds) and then maybe about Maradona. That's the relationship Italy-Argentina (they other way around). :rolleyes:

  • I do not know about the bonds but the idea of making money investments in Argentina sounds very risky. At least with real estate you have a roof over your head, but money?


    Aren't Argentinian bonds famous in the US? In Italy, 500,000 small investors (= grandpas) lost a lot of money because of them about 20 years ago (in 2001). As the old says goes 'If it sounds to good to be true, it probably is'.


    I believe also my grandparents lost money on them - they never talked about it, they were too ashamed. Italian banks were proposing them as a good and safe investment, and when they collapsed, lifetime savings were swept aways. If you say 'Argentina' to an Italian, he/she will talk about Argentinian bonds (also called tango bonds) and then maybe about Maradona. That's the relationship Italy-Argentina (they other way around). :rolleyes:

    Those bonds and Maradona - two late-developing Argentine tragedies.

  • Those bonds and Maradona - two late-developing Argentine tragedies.

    Weren't they sold elsewhere? Or were they sold mostly in Italy, hence the resonance?

    Macri is offering the same thing, just 20 years later... I am afraid it's the same history repeating. It is like admitting that inflation will be like this forever. It sorts of contradicts the premise of a country whose economy is in good standing.

  • I think we need to have more faith.

    Inflation appears to be half of what it was 24-36 months ago and even then no one knew how much it was as INDEC was used as a political tool.

    This.


    Of course we can't know how things will develop, but the plan seems to be to borrow now for infrastructure investment which will spur economic activity and allow the bonds to be paid comfortably.


    Will it work? No idea, but at least we can be reasonably sure that there's not a gang of chorros at the top stealing every dollar from every agency.

  • But he is making promises on 10-20 years and he doesn't know if he will be re-elected in two years...


    I agree that we should have faith, but in this time where the whole world economy is facing hard times, I strongly doubt that Argentina will rise and shine.

  • But he is making promises on 10-20 years and he doesn't know if he will be re-elected in two years...


    I agree that we should have faith, but in this time where the whole world economy is facing hard times, I strongly doubt that Argentina will rise and shine.

    I've been tied to Argentina for over 40 years now, waiting for the boludos to rise and shine. Hope springs eternal.

  • I just read the May 3 Mercopress article "Lack of investor confidence sees the Argentine Peso fall 3.11% against the dollar." An analogy in the comments section seemed appropriate to this thread:


    "Following your airliner analogy. The airliner was flying at full speed towards the ground under CFK but her approach was to increase the thrust, steepen the downward angle of the plane and jettison the parachutes while telling everyone on board that all was well and providing them with beer and sausage sandwiches.


    What Macri has done has slowed the planes speed down, reduced its angle of approach to the ground and changed the plane's direction. In doing so the plane has hit a bit of turbulence. Will the plane still crash? We don't know, but wouldn't you prefer to have a pilot who was taking some correct actions rather than having one who was taking all of the worst possible actions?


    Meanwhile some passengers on board are complaining that the plane has changed direction, they aren't getting any beer any more and there's some turbulence. So they are advocating a return to the previous pilot because they'd rather have some beer in their hands as the plane hits the ground..."

  • As Enrique Santos Discépolo put it in 1934 in Cambalache:


    "Que el mundo fue y será una porquería ya lo sé...

    (¡En el quinientos seis y en el dos mil también!)."


    That the world was and will be filthy, yeah, I know.

    (In the years 506 and 2000, as well!)


  • For anyone still confused about inflation here are some extracts from the BA Times today.


    Quote


    Inflation in the month of April totalled 2.7 percent, bringing total inflation for 2018 to 9.6 percent, the INDEC statistic bureau reported.

    Then...

    Quote

    “The goal for inflation is not a forecast, rather it’s a guide for economic policy”, Cabinet Chief Marcos Peña said Tuesday.

    Then again...

    Quote


    “Argentina will have more inflation and less (economic) growth” than expected.

    ..and some more

    Quote


    the government long ago conceded that inflation would be higher in the first part of the year while insisting it would start to drop from May.

    In a nutshell, this is what economic life in argentina is really like:



  • So appropriate! Good find, Splinter !


    My favorite of the quotes, of course, is Peña's “The goal for inflation is not a forecast, rather it’s a guide for economic policy”,


    But the winner in the cliffhanger department is definitely "The government long ago conceded that inflation would be higher in the first part of the year while insisting it would start to drop from May."